क्या नाम से फर्क पड़ सकता है? - देव आनंद

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क्या नाम से फर्क पड़ सकता है? की श्रृंखला में आपका स्वागत है नाम के अक्षर विभिन्न तत्वों के सदस्य हैं जैसे जल मण्डल , अग्नि मण्डल , पृथ्वी मण्डल  और वायु मण्डल । देव आनंद बहुमुखी व्यक्तित्व के धनी एक सफल अभिनेता और कलाकार थे। आज मैं उनके फिल्मी नाम देव और असली नाम धरमदेव दोनों का विश्लेषण करूंगा और जानूंगा कि उनके सफल करियर में उनके नाम का कोई योगदान है या नहीं। नाम देव  आनंद   -  देव शब्द में एक अक्षर वायु मण्डल से और एक अक्षर अग्नि मण्डल से। दोनों तत्व एक दूसरे के मित्र हैं अर्थात एक दूसरे की टांग नहीं खींचते और एक दूसरे की मदद करते हैं जिससे 1 + 1 = 11 हो जाता है। उपनाम आनंद - 1 अक्षर जल मंडल, 2 अक्षर वायु मंडल। अब वायु मंडल के कुल अक्षर 3 हुए (१ देव शब्द से और २ आनंद शब्द से) + अग्नि मंडल अक्षर 1 ( देव शब्द से )  =  कुल  मित्र अक्षर 4 और जल मंडल अक्षर 1 (आनंद शब्द से). अगर विरोधी समाज अनुपात 1 विभाजित 4 = 0.25 जो 0.33 जितना या उससे  कम है तो अल्पमत हार मान लेता है और विपरीत पक्ष का मित्र बन जाता है। अतः देव आनंद नाम के 5 अक्षर सही हैं। नाम धरमदेव  आनंद    -  धरमदेव शब्द  इस नाम में

Zero days to expiry for August 10, 2023 - S&P 500 (#SPX $SPX #SPY $SPY #0DTE) daily probability insights

 Zero days to expiry for August 10, 2023 -  S&P 500 (#SPX $SPX #SPY $SPY #0DTE) daily probability insights

Patterns based Probability Prediction:

Normally any binary prediction will have 50:50 probability, be it flipping a coin or be it predicting whether a market will close higher or lower compared to its previous close. An edge can be gained if one is able to make correct prediction which is > 50%

S&P 500 (#SPX $SPX) is one of the largest traded index in terms of volume and turnover. The purpose of this post is to provide daily probability insights based on the patterns. It provides information on whether next trading day close will be higher or lower compared to its previous day's trading day close. This could be of interest to traders looking for second opinion on top of their analysis and are trading in SPX, specifically 0DTE (zero day to expiry) trades Please refer the disclaimer in the end of the article.

S&P 500 is being traded since 1789. As on close of trade on August 8 2023, there is 39003 days of daily historical price data available. The back testing of the pattern has following results.

No patterns                                       3144

Close Predicted Correctly              19077

Close Predicted Wrongly                16783

                                                    =========

Total trading days                           39004


Overall prediction accuracy          53.20%

Overall prediction accuracy is for all the records. The daily prediction accuracy will be based on the individual patterns and each pattern will have accuracy which will be higher or lower than the average mentioned above.

No patterns are (1) the days when a pattern happened for the first time and there is no preceding record with similar pattern to make prediction. (2) the days when number of positive and negative close have equal count i.e. exactly 50:50 ratio, and (3) It also includes those days when close on next day was same as close on previous day. Such days used to happen in early years of its trading. Such days are excluded from positive or negative close count.

SPX closed at 4467.71 on August 9, 2023.

There are 4268 trading days in the past that have pattern which is similar to the close on August 9, 2023.

Following is the updates for August 10, 2023.

There are 2157 trading days that closed higher compared to their previous day close with Average 0.74% , Minimum 0.01% and Maximum 11%. Probability of higher close > 4467.71 on August 10, 2023  is 50.54%

There are  2111 trading days that closed lower compared to their previous day close with Average -0.88% , Minimum -0.01% and Maximum -11.31%. Probability of lower close < 4467.71 on August 10, 2023 is 49.46%

Disclaimer - This is not a investment or trading advice / recommendation. It does not look at Technical Analysis or Fundamental Analysis. The outcome could be prone to data issues or calculation issues. This post is for information purpose only.  The higher probability percentage or ranking does not guarantee the actual outcome to be matching with that of predicted outcome.
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